March 19 this year than in the same period for
2009 -- 92 in 2010 compared to 135 in 2009,
down by about 33%. Spec sales are off even fur-
ther: 11 so far in 2010, compared to roughly 21
through the same period in 2009."
market, we mean the studios and the big
production companies. There are many
other script buyers, although generally at
lower prices. Our ongoing series of articles
about niche markets covers many of those
other buyers.]
spec appears to be on its way out, and it's
being replaced by the new paradigm, which
is... do the best you can even though no
one's buying anything. Huh? What kind of
crap is that? Sadly, it's just the way it is,
brothers and sisters. The Spec Market Score-
card tells the tale. Everyone was hoping for
a bounce in 2010 given 2009's already ane-
mic numbers. Instead, the opposite hap-
pened. It's actually gotten worse.
up, and is there any light at the end of this
tunnel? Come with us now as the Agent's
-- whether you like them or not!
compared to last year, that's only half the pic-
ture. "The pricing of the script sales, even in
competitive situations, has gone dramatically
down as well," says UTA feature literary agent
Julien Thuan. "Not only are there fewer sales,
but they're selling for a lot less money." Thuan
recalls two recent UTA sales with multiple bid-
ders each time. This is, of course, the dream
scenario -- bidding wars allow agents to sell
scripts for serious money. Except in 2010.
"One opening offer was essentially scale,"
Thuan continues. "They're willing to let it
play out." In the past, representatives might
have laughed at such lowball offers and
walked away. But not anymore. "[Buyers are
they're all one-step deals. You have to take a
different approach to how you structure your
overall business in the aggregate as a writer.
That's the hardest part because it's an emo-
tional conversation -- it's that realization that
things are not what they were even as recently
as two years ago."
Jason Scoggins, author of the Spec Market
Scorecard newsletter and founder of
www.lifeonthebubble.com. "In 2008, the writ-
ers' strike hit. When it ended, there was a lit-
tle flurry of activity. But then the actors started
rattling their sabers, so 2008 kind of sucked;
2009 was the global recession. And this year...
it's been pretty bad." Scoggins says the studios
are making fewer movies and therefore devel-
oping fewer projects. Furthermore, they are
mainly interested in projects that have a built-
in marketing angle. "That's why we see all the
stuff being either rebooted or adapted from
books and comic books or video games -- all
of those things that we complain about all of
the time. That sucks a lot of the air out of the
room for original material."
they're more or less going to sit out 2010. Dis-
ney has shuttered Miramax, is cutting pro-
brands that are left
that are in the zeitgeist
and craft great stories
around them. Think
like a studio."